By the time you read this, you will be in the midst of one of the most predictable Saskatchewan election campaigns in history.
Although Premier Brad Wall has not yet gone to see Lt.-Gov. Gordon Barnhart as of writing of this Tuesday evening, I make the above pronouncement with a high degree of certainty.
As for the timing of the campaign in this new era of set election dates, it's a matter of simple math. The election law passed by the Sask. Party government dictates the vote be held on the first Monday in November, meaning Nov. 7 in 2011. The only remaining mystery is the length of the campaign, which, by statute, must be between 28 and 34 days. (This includes the day of the vote, but not the day that the election is actually called.) Wall's options for the election call are between Wednesday, Oct. 5 (a 34-day campaign) and holiday Monday, Oct. 10 (meaning a 28-day campaign).
This means that a Saskatchewan election campaign will begin sometime after the writing of this column. And since politics is all about calculated risk and since it's to the advantage of the front-runner to have as short a campaign as possible, most are betting that the election call will come the evening of Thanksgiving Monday.
Almost as predictable is the outcome on November 7. Saskatchewan hasn't had a one-term government since 1933 and this particular Saskatchewan Party has a 37-percentage point leader according to last month's Leader-Post poll. If there is a sure thing in politics, it is that Brad Wall's Sask. Party will be re-elected on Nov. 7.
So that means that there is nothing at stake in this upcoming provincial vote? Quite the contrary.
History tells us the second term of government usually becomes the source of trouble for administrations.
In the case of the 1960s Liberals, it was the first budget after re-election that spelled the most trouble. For Allan Blakeney's NDP, it was the so-called potash industry "nationalization" that set the direction for NDP, its government and the entire province.
One might argue that the Grant Devine's Progressive Conservatives dug us deep into deficit in the first term, but it was really the spending combined with economic downturn after the 1986 election that got them into trouble. Add in its aggressive privatization agenda and the later-to-be-revealed corruption and it was the second-term that proved to be the death knell of Saskatchewan's PC party.
That Roy Romanow-Lorne Calvert NDP would survive two more elections after the NDP's second term may suggest to some that it wasn't quite so critical. But it was really the second-term, the one after the deficit-fight, in which the NDP seemed to lose both direction and identity.
While there may be no question that Brad Wall's Sask. Party will win, exactly what lies in store for the government and all of us remains a big mystery. Tuesday also saw another significant fall in the stock market, signifying a double-dip recession. That oil prices are nearing $20 a barrel US of what the budget predicted doesn't bode well.
An election is the exact time to be asking our politicians about these challenges that lie before us. If we do experience growth, how to we meet the infrastructure, housing, inflation and job creation challenges? And if we have an economic downturn, how do we deal with that?
What do you as a voter want in your next MLA? Are you voting for a strong voice on the government side? Are you voting for a strong voice to keep the government honest?
This election might not be in doubt, but there's a lot about the future of our province that needs to be seriously considered.
