Looking at where Premier Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party now sits, it's hard to imagine it having many struggles in 2012.
Its 64-per-cent and 49-seat win in the Nov. 7 election obviously gives it an unquestionable mandate to govern as it sees fit.
The main challenge right now would seem to be avoid scandal or economic trouble, the former of which should be well within the control of any disciplined government but the latter of which is less predictable. After all, one thing clearly out of Brad Wall's hands right now it is the world markets for grains, oilseeds, potash and oil that have driven Saskatchewan's prosperity for the past seven years.
That said, Wall enters 2012 with a lot of positive indicators in his favour.
For instance, the world wheat crop is expected to break a record in 2012, largely because demands have been that high.
Stock markets remain on a roller coaster because of political-economic events in Europe and Asia, but oil, gas and especially potash prices seem to be steady or on the rise. In fact, so confident is the potash industry that we are seeing a never-before-experienced boom in mine construction that should have massive impact on Saskatchewan construction activity in 2012 and well beyond.
Whether it's employment, retail sales, housing starts average wages (now, the second highest in the country only behind Alberta), exports, oil land lease sales or just about any the meaningful economic statistics, the news seems to just keep getting better and better for the Wall government.
And lest there be any doubt of the impact of all this economic good news, consider the latest population news, a record 1,063,535 people in Saskatchewan according to the release of the October Statistics Canada numbers that continue to show an on-going pattern of new immigrants moving here.
Add to the fact that the NDP Opposition, reduced to nine MLAs in the November vote, seem to be in greater disarray than it has ever been in and it appears that nothing will derail the Wall government in 2012.
However, there are a few critical things to watch out for that may say a lot about what kind of year the Sask. Party government is going to have.
The first one is government spending. Notwithstanding our massive economic success, we are actually running a $304-million deficit when the Crowns are factored in. This is because this is a government that very much loves to spend, as witnessed by massive infrastructure spending and salary hikes to groups like nurses.
This will also make the 2012 budget a challenge.
And what may be an even greater challenge is a lack of support from the Sask. Party's Conservative friends in Ottawa who are already serving notice that austerity measures will include money to the provinces for things like health and social services transfers. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's recent announcement that the provinces should soon stop expecting annual six-per-cent increases in federal health transfer payments is not good news for a province like Saskatchewan running well ahead of the rest of the nation in growth rate and it need of dealing with our large elderly and First Nation populations. In fact, becoming too closely tied to the federal government is another big problem.
But perhaps the Sask. Party government's biggest pitfall might be its own hubris. For example, its recent announcement to increase the legislature by three seats is the kind of self-serving decision that can lead a government into trouble.
Mostly, it appears smooth sailing for Wall in 2012. That said, there are a few barely submerged problems, the most dangerous of which could be of the Sask. Party government's own making.
